National Security in the Anthropocene: New Risks and Challenges

In recent decades, humans have transformed the Earth so much that we no longer live in the geologic epoch called the Holocene. Instead, many scientists believe that the Earth has entered a new geologic epoch called the Anthropocene, which is marked by a new stratigraphic layer in the Earth’s crust characterized by human creations, such as plastics, pollution, and radioactive fallout from nuclear weapons. Besides the changes to the geologic structure of the Earth, the conditions of the Anthropocene mean that we can no longer rely on the predictable natural systems that have led to the rise of the most successful societies in all of human history.

The Holocene, the epoch in which most of human history belonged, was marked by a stable climate and predictable natural cycles, giving rise to the development of agriculture, the organization of societies, and the emergence of long-distance transportation and trade routes. However, since the start of the Industrial Revolutions, the Earth has surpassed seven of the nine planetary boundaries, causing irreversible changes to the Earth System. The processes that led to evidence of humanity in the Earth’s crust is also causing disruptions to the Earth System. Climate change is just one component of the Anthropocene, but other changes to the Earth System include the catastrophic loss of biodiversity, land use changes, ocean acidification, freshwater changes, and impacts on biogeochemical flows (i.e. the carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles) due to increased agriculture. These changes associated with the Anthropocene are predicted to cause immense harm to all humans, with some populations being more affected than others.

Besides the impacts on human health, the changes in the Earth System associated with the Anthropocene will lead to new issues regarding national security. Since humans have changed the natural processes of the Earth, including climate patterns, new threats will arise based on new unpredictable systems that can challenge how states maintain peace. Some of those new national security risks and challenges are caused by an uptick in extreme weather events, climate-induced migration, and the changing quantities of natural resources available. For each risk, I will explain how the Anthropocene amplifies it and possible solutions to mitigate them.

Challenge 1: Extreme Weather Events

Climate change is only one component of the Anthropocene, but it is already causing extreme weather events to be more forceful and unpredictable. Not only is the warming climate intensifying hurricanes and changing rainfall patterns, but it is also making winter weather more extreme by disrupting the normal flow of the jet stream with brings cold air from the Arctic to more temperate areas. These events impact national security because state capacity is reduced in areas that are affected by natural disasters. 

The state has to deploy resources to assist in the recovery of natural disasters, and the increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters mean that states are allocating more resources to respond to these crises. These emergency responses strain the resources that the state has available, diverting funds for other uses to disaster recovery. The infrastructure of the areas afflicted can also be damaged, further harming the security of the area. Recent ice storms in the Southern United States caused mass power outages, and the electric grid in Texas could not handle a cold snap in 2021. Hurricanes can also lead to massive power outages and the storm surge and high winds associated with them can also damage important assets such as military bases, ports, and logistical sites. 

An additional challenge that comes with natural disaster is its impact on government trust and democratic backsliding. A report published by SDF details a few instances of post-disaster impacts on national security and democratic resilience. Outside actors, whether for malicious intent or for economic gain, swoop into disaster relief zones to exploit the institutional breakdowns that often follow major crises, leading to a loss in trust of institutions, which is harmful to democracy. One such instance is the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Sri Lanka, which resulted in an uptick in human trafficking due to poor state protections. The tsunami led to mass displacement, separated families, and made certain populations vulnerable to being exploited by human traffickers. This illustrates how state protections are inadequate in times of disaster and can weaken confidence in state capacity.

With natural disasters becoming more commonplace, one way that countries can mitigate their impact is by preparing for them. That means investing more resources into emergency response units. But preparing for natural disasters also mean promoting adaptation. For example, many low-lying cities such as Venice and New Orleans have flood barriers to protect the cities from high water events. Other cities such as Freetown in Sierra Leone and Melbourne are promoting urban forests to combat the increasing frequency of heat waves. The combination of preparing for extreme weather events through adaptation and improved responses can ensure that trust in the government does not break down when natural disasters leave many in a vulnerable state.

Challenge 2: Climate-Induced Migration

Explosive population growth is one of the key social indicators of the Anthropocene, as it was the human disruption of natural cycles through inventions like the Haber-Bosch Process that enabled the population growth of the 20^th century. A natural consequence of explosive population growth is migration. With the unstable Earth System creating unsuitable economic conditions in many parts of the world, climate-induced migration is increasing, as people in vulnerable locations seek better climatic conditions and the economic opportunities that come with it. Low-lying islands may also be completely submerged due to sea level rise, facilitating entire populations being displaced. 

Mass migration and population pressures have the potential to create national security issues if not dealt with correctly. Countries experiencing rapid population growth due to better farming practices can also experience a youth bulge, where a large cohort of youth come to age and experience high unemployment and a state that is unable to provide basic services to the population. The result is increased protests and political instability. Likewise, countries experiencing an influx of migrants can also experience similar pressures. When a new population moves into an area that is unable to support them, political instability can arise. For example, severe droughts in Syria led to mass migration towards its eastern cities, which put pressure on social services and eventually led to protests and the Syrian Revolution.

Instability and security risks resulting from population influxes, whether it be from natural growth or migration, can be stemmed through two mechanisms. The first is the equitable provision of state services. When the state is able to provide public services that address the needs of the entire population, it strengthens the legitimacy of the state, making any challenge to the state’s authority lacking in reason. The second is sound policies that allow for the integration of migrants into the destination society. The contact hypothesis posits that the facilitation of intergroup cooperation reduces biases and prejudice. By promoting the integration of migrants into the destination society, the new arrivals are not reduced to second-class citizens, preventing discontent from brewing among them. Integrating with the host society also causes the host society to see the newcomers as more of a partner and less of a threat. 

Challenge 3: Conflicts over Natural Resources

Conflicts have always been fought over natural resources, but the unpredictable nature of the Anthropocene will make these conflict more common. With changing environmental conditions, the supply of natural resources can decrease or increase in unpredictable ways. Increased droughts can decrease the supply of water, which is essential to sustaining life. Droughts and a warming climate can also change the amount of arable land in an area. Countries need these natural resources to survive because their citizens depend on those resources to sustain themselves, so if their allocations of those resources are in danger, they are willing to fight to protect them. 

The allocation of water resources has caused much uncertainty for countries that depend on other countries for their water. To increase their supply of available water and to generate hydroelectricity for development, Ethiopia has built the Grand Renaissance Dam on one of the branches of the Nile River, threatening downriver water supply in Egypt. This has led to a diplomatic standoff because as droughts become more frequent, Egypt fears losing its water resources, 97% of which comes from the Nile River. If these disagreements are not resolved, Egyptian policymakers have threatened military action if Ethiopia’s actions affect Egypt’s historical water supply, up to sending troops to destroy the dam itself.

In the environment of the Anthropocene, the control of natural resources can also be used as a vector of violence in conflict. After a series of Taliban attacks in 2025, India suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, allowing India to control all the water flowing from the Himalayas into Pakistan. The treaty had ensured that Pakistan would receive an equitable share of water through the Indus River, which is the lifeblood of the country’s agricultural sector. By controlling the source of Pakistan’s water, India can in times of drought, arbitrarily limit the amount of water that Pakistan receives, which could lead to catastrophic consequences for those Pakistanis who rely on the Indus River. 

However, conflict over natural resources is not inevitable. Elinor Ostrom proved that entities with strong institutions are able to organize themselves to manage natural resources in a way that will not deplete them. It is also essential for countries that share natural resources to understand and acknowledge the importance of conserving them, as it can lead to a sustained peace. When adversarial countries cooperate to manage shared natural resources, peace can be sustained. For example, Armenia and Turkey do not have formal diplomatic relations stemming from historic grievances about the Armenia Genocide, however, they cooperate to manage the Arpacay River Basin, which provides water for both countries. Through frequent meetings and joint policies, they are able to build trust between the two adversarial countries and keep the peace between them.

Conclusion

Conflict and the environment have always been interrelated, but the uncertainty of the Anthropocene will exacerbate the existing environmental threats to national security. Therefore, climate change and the Anthropocene is often referred to as a “threat multiplier,” since it has the ability to make existing threats to stability worse. It is also important to note that these threats are not solely environmental in nature—forces such as disaster relief, migration, and natural resource management are intertwined with economic and social systems as well. The new epoch of the Anthropocene that we are entering is transforming Earth’s environmental, climatic, economic, and social systems, and being prepared to combat those new threats will require a deep understanding of how the Anthropocene will destabilize those systems.

Bryan Fok has conducted extensive research on environmental security and international development issues. He has worked as a research assistant with the Kellogg Institute for International Studies, the Sagamore Institute, and APPRISE. He is currently an analyst at AlphaROC and holds a B.A. in Global Affairs from the University of Notre Dame.